What’s happening this week?

* On Sunday, January 9, African leaders and world diplomats will gather in Nairobi, Kenya to witness the signing of an historic peace deal intended to end Africa’s longest-running civil war.

* This conflict between the Sudanese government in the north and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) in southern Sudan has raged for more than two decades.

* Sunday’s signing ceremony marks the culmination of two years of formal peace talks and many years of periodic negotiations, sustained by regional and international diplomacy.

* The signing of this peace deal could mark an historic moment for Sudan, by bringing to an end decades of violence and devastation in Africa’s largest country. It could similarly mark an important moment for the entire African continent.

* However, this peace agreement does not cover the ongoing conflict in Darfur, western Sudan, where the Sudanese government continues to wage a campaign of genocide against civilians from three ethnic groups. Over the past two years, up to 400,000 people have died, and 2 million more have been made homeless in Darfur as a consequence resulting in what the UN has called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

Background to the North-South conflict

* Since independence in 1956, Sudanese has experienced only a decade of peace (1972-1983). Both before and after that period the Sudanese government was at war with the southern Sudanese people. Sudan has been run by successive Arab-centric regimes in Khartoum dominated by a small clique of northern communities, while groups from various regions elsewhere in the country have expressed increasing frustration about their marginalization, the lack of representative government, and their own lack of access to wealth and power.

* Despite its rapidly growing oil wealth, Sudan remains largely underdeveloped and most of its people live in poverty.

* In 1983, the SPLA/M took up arms against the government in Khartoum to demand greater autonomy and access to resources and to oppose moves to introduce Islamic law across Sudan.

The conflict that has raged since then has pitted Sudan’s mainly Arabized and Muslim-led government against African rebels in the south from communities practicing traditional African religions or Christianity.

* In the past two decades, more than 2 million people have lost their lives through violence, disease and starvation in southern Sudan.

* Since 1994, the East African regional body called the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has sponsored a peace process between north and south, and since 2002 formal peace talks have been underway.

* In November 2004, the government and the rebels pledged to the UN Security Council that they would reach a comprehensive peace agreement by the end of 2004.

The last two chapters were agreed on December 31st, paving the way for a comprehensive peace agreement, which will be signed on January 9.

What is the peace deal?

* The comprehensive peace deal to be signed on January 9 comprises eight protocols dealing with a variety of issues, including the division of Sudan’s national wealth and power, and the question of autonomy for the south.

* Under the terms of these agreements, a government of national unity will be formed for a transitional period of 6 years. During this time, the south will be autonomous, and at the end of the six-year period a referendum will be held on the matter of secession.

* The military forces of the Government of Sudan and the SPLA are to be integrated into a 39,000 strong force, with government-backed militias in southern Sudan to be disbanded within one year.

* The country’s vast oil wealth, concentrated in the south, is to be shared 50:50 between north and south.

* Jobs are to be split in favor of the government in the national administration (70:30) and in favor of the government (55:45) in Abyei, Blue Nile States and Nuba Mountains regions.

* Sharia Islamic Law will only be applied in northern Sudan.

* Once an interim constitution has been drafted, SPLA leader John Garang will be Vice-President of Sudan. He will also be President of southern Sudan during the transitional period.

* At the signing ceremony on January 9, all eight protocols will be signed. Following a six-month preparatory phase, the six-year transitional period will begin.

What is the significance of this peace agreement? What is still needed?

* There is a good deal of optimism about this peace deal, but very serious challenges remain.

* This deal could bring peace and stability to southern Sudan for first time in a generation, and could allow human and economic development in an area devastated by conflict.
* But at the same time, this is only a signing ceremony, which guarantees nothing by itself.

There are real questions about implementation of this plan, and about whether its terms are workable.

* There must be fundamental concerns about whether the Khartoum government can be regarded as a legitimate and trustworthy partner for peace, particularly when it is currently engaged in a genocidal campaign in another region of Sudan. In addition, this government has violated numerous previous agreements on north-south peace.

* If peace in southern Sudan is to be sustainable and meaningful, a well-equipped and robust international peace-keeping force is needed both to investigate reported violations of peace agreements, and to oversee the disarmament of the militias.

There is also a need for a force on the ground that can deter any violations of the ceasefire, and that can swiftly and effectively respond to any such violations that might occur.

* An urgent need exists for financial assistance to support the transition in southern Sudan, after the devastation of two decades of war. Up to one million displaced people are likely to return home to the south from the north of Sudan once the peace deal is signed, and the economy and infrastructure of this region are extremely weak.

There is a need for urgent financial aid to support reconstruction and development in southern Sudan.

What about Darfur?

* As a peace deal is signed between north and south in Sudan, the ongoing crisis in Darfur still casts a long shadow. The peace accords to be signed on January 9th do not cover the ongoing crisis in this western region of Sudan.

* The crisis in Darfur is not directly related to the North-South war, but rebel groups in both areas have similar grievances against the government, and have made similar claims for access to wealth and power. In both regions, the government of Sudan has pursued similar (and devastating) counter-insurgency tactics against civilians that have, on more than one occasion, amounted to genocide.

* Some officials claim that the signing of the north-south peace deal means there is a better chance for peace in Darfur, and that the future coalition government will be in a better position to help resolve that conflict.

They also express hope that this agreement might form a template for an agreement on Darfur.

* But there are real questions about whether a government pursuing genocide can be a peacemaker at all, and whether the Khartoum government is signing a peace accord with the south in order to divert attention away from its ongoing campaign of violence in Darfur.

* The bottom line is that realities in Darfur will not be changed in any way by this weekend’s signing ceremony in Kenya, and up to 35,000 people will still die every month in Darfur as the genocide continues.

* The limited African Union force on the ground in Darfur (only 1,000 troops of a promised 4,000 strong force) remains completely inadequate and overwhelmed, and civilians in Darfur are continuously vulnerable to violent attacks, rapes, and to the ravages of the deteriorating humanitarian crisis.

The U.S. & Sudan’s Peace

* Across several administrations, the U.S. has been involved in promoting peace in Sudan, and the Bush Administration is eager to claim credit for its diplomatic efforts.

* A diverse constituency of groups in the U.S. has been pushing the U.S. to engage with peace efforts in Sudan, supported by an eclectic domestic constituency, including groups ranging from the evangelical right to the Congressional Black Caucus

* The U.S. has welcomed the imminent signing of the north-south peace deal, stating that it is eager to "normalize relations" with the Khartoum government.

* The US is particularly interested in gaining access to Sudan’s recently developed oil wealth for U.S. companies, and has said that it will lift sanctions on Sudan if the war ends.

* The U.S. is also very interested in a relationship with the Khartoum government in order to ensure its cooperation in the "War on Terrorism."